THE CHASE FOR THE NEXTEL CUP 2006 is just a few months away.
July 2nd, 2006-The Daytona race is over and now the serious part of the season begins now.
If you still have a chance to make the CHASE, you need to step up starting at Chichagoland. No lucky r-plates left before
the CHASE begins in September. A lot of racing on cookie cutters as we head towards the CHASE.
It looks like Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth have already set their spot in this years CHASE.
Unless an injury or something crazy happens, these 2 guys are in this years CHASE.
So thats 2 down, 8 spots left
Dale Earnhardt Jr, Kasey Kahne, and Tony Stewart should all make the CHASE. They just have to avoid
multiple DNF's and run consistent and they will make the CHASE. They probably could take one bad race and still be solidly
in at Richmond.
So if the season continues good to average for those drivers, we only have 5 spots left.
Mark Martin has always been known for consistency and in 2006, Jeff Burton has been just as consistent.
Jeff Burton has not had a DNF in 2006, if Jeff Burton and Mark Martin can keep the consistency going with a couple Top 5's
they can make the 2006 CHASE.
That leaves 3 spots left in the 10 man CHASE if it is 10 drivers. Only way it could be more is if
leaders Johnson and Kenseth had a really bad strech before Richmond.
Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick have almost stayed in the Top 10 all season long. It would be a dissappointment
to both of these teams if they don't make it. Harvick and Kyle have never made a Nextel CHASE and they are both looking forward
to it in 06. But they have to start putting together better races, contending for wins and avoiding trouble on the track,
especially run ins with other drivers. Kyle and Harvick have both been known to cause wrecks in recent years and they have
to avoid anything like that to make the CHASE.
Now if those 9 guys above make the CHASE, that leaves 1 spot left. I would say at this point after
Daytona, 6 or 7 drivers have a CHANCE at that 10th spot.
Denny Hamlin is a rookie, it would be crazy for him to make it but he already has that 1st win and
he knows how to knock off good finishes. He is in right now, and needs some luck and he needs to handle the pressure for a
chance.
Greg Biffle leads in most catergories this year, like being in the lead, being in the Top 10, ect,
but his points position doesn't show it because of bad luck. He has had many DNF's that he couldn't control, but his good
finishes are possible each and every week. So without a ton of bad luck, its almost impossible for Biffle not to get in.
Jeff Gordon, he didn't make the CHASE in 2005, but he has prepared for 06 better and the team has
been better at about every track. Like Biffle, some of his good runs have not shown by his finishes. He has had a lot of bad
luck that has him outside right now. This team knows pressure and they love fighting against theirselves to become better.
If Gordon can avoid much more bad luck, they can get in, but its going to be a tough ride to Richmond.
Kurt Busch has had his share of bad luck this season, but some just bad runs. In the last couple
weeks he has turned up the heat on the competition and he is making a statement trying to make the CHASE. He is a Nextel Cup
Champion, he may be able to do it if they run really well without any DNF's.
Carl Edwards has had more bad luck than anyone in 2006. A sophmore slump has killed this team, but
he is always capable of running well. Its going to be nearly impossible for him to get in, but the team is capable of it,
its just luck is a bad thing.
Casey Mears is a ver long shot. I don't think they will have any chance, but we will give them another
week or 2 to determine if they are out for sure.
Really in 2006, 15 or 16 drivers deserve to make the CHASE. Those 15 or 16 drivers have ran good
all season, its just about 6 or 7 of them have had bad luck on their side. I guess luck is part of it, but if I would change
anything about the CHASE, it should be 15 drivers that make it cause at least 15 deserve a chance at the title.
